By Rob Gray, Ph.D.

In our information-rich society, prior expectations are incredibly pervasive and powerful---we rarely if ever go into a situation without some type of anticipation about what we are about to experience. Information in our environment constantly generates expectations about upcoming events we will experience. A friend’s comments create pre-conceptions about a movie you are going to see on the weekend. A television commercial gets us all jazzed up about the new iPhone we are thinking of buying. A cigar review we recently read in a magazine, the price of a cigar, and manufacturer’s name all can predispose us to expect a certain flavor and burn quality when smoking a particular cigar. In this article, I will explore how expectation and anticipation can alter the cigar smoking experience and discuss the value of the commonly used practice of using blind reviews/ratings to evaluate cigars.

Founded on consumer psychology research, it has become quite clear that expectations based on brand information and packaging can have substantial effects on the perceived quality of consumable products. Whether based on the personal testimony of “average Joe,” or the professional testimony of “experts,” the effects of expectations on our perceptions can be powerful. In fact, these expectations can directly alter our sensations of odor and flavor. This phenomenon is often referred to as a “framing effect”.



Expectations Affect Perceptions of Flavor
Examples of how “framing” affects perceptions of flavor are plentiful in scientific literature. In a recent study, beer drinkers were asked to taste two types of beer and pick their favorite (Lee et al., 2006). One of the samples was Budweiser while the other was a home-brew with Balsamic vinegar added. For subjects that tasted the beers blind, about 60% preferred the beer with vinegar in it. On the other hand, only 18% of the subjects that were told the ingredients beforehand preferred the vinegar beer.

In a another study, subjects claimed that ground beef tasted less greasy when it was presented in a package that said “75% lean ground beef,” compared to packaging stating “25% fat ground beef”. Unknown to the subjects was the fact that both samples were exactly the same (Levin & Gaeth, 1988).

Finally, the perceived sweetness of orange juice changed when presented in a package with the word “Florida” and a picture of a sun as compared to a similar package without these features (Hoegg & Alba, 2007). Clearly, the manner in which a product is “framed” can directly alter the most basic taste sensations.

Factors that Influence our Perceptions of a Cigar
This previous research strongly suggests that our expectations about a cigar, generated by the information and context surrounding it, should dramatically affect the cigar’s perceived flavor and aroma, and the overall enjoyment we get from it (although this has not been directly investigated in experiments, to my knowledge). Further, there are a good many factors that can contribute expectations to our cigar smoking experience.

Below, I have listed some of the factors that contribute to the expectations about a cigar before lighting it up. Note that this list does not include factors directly related to the tobacco itself (e.g., the color of the wrapper), nor does it state whether the expectations generated from these factors will be good or bad.

Manufacturer name
Aesthetics of the packaging (box and/or band)
Price
Rarity
Knowledge of production methods
Your previous experiences with the cigar
Others experiences with the cigar (e.g., friends comments, magazine reviews/ratings)
Advertisements for the cigar

The key point here is that expectations generated by some or all of these factors are an integral part of normal cigar smoking that cannot be separated from the sensations produced by our senses of taste and smell. Whether we are willing to admit it or not expectations have an extremely powerful effect on our sensory experiences!

Should we “Go Blind”?
Using expectations to guide our perceptions of the quality of cars, dish soap, or cigars, is a normal practice. Most of us have used some or all of the factors mentioned above, to guide us in our selection of cigars to purchase. Although expectations are ubiquitous in our everyday life, it is interesting that the common practice of blind cigar tasting is an attempt to portray those expectations as being negative (e.g., a “bias” or “prejudice”) and that they must be somehow eliminated. The primary method that has been used to eliminate the “contaminating” effects of expectations on our sensory experiences is to present the product “blind”, that is, to remove all possible cues to its identity. Although the “blind method” has and continues to be used successfully in several areas (e.g., drug research), it has also been employed in some areas where it’s supporting logic and effectiveness is questionable. I would argue that one such area is cigar reviewing/rating.



As most cigar smokers know, several cigar magazines and Internet sites currently utilize blind cigar reviews/ratings. But are they really the best method for evaluating and reviewing cigars? Let’s consider the cigar that perhaps produces the strongest prior expectations in cigar smokers, the Fuente Opus X, to examine the logic behind the use of blind reviews/ratings.

Before putting fire to an Opus X most cigar smokers will have several prior conceptions about it. For example, if you are a big fan of Fuente products you might expect the cigar to have complex and rich flavors with a perfect draw and burn. These positive expectations may be further enhanced by your knowledge of the Opus X’s price and rarity (perceived quality of a product is strongly related to it’s cost and supply), knowledge of it’s novel production methods and aging (e.g., use of Cognac barrels and the unique rolling method), the artistic quality of it’s band, and the high rating scores it has received.

Alternately, you could have negative expectations about the Opus X. If you have been told that it is completely over-hyped and not worth the money you might anticipate that is flavors will not be that great. Supporters of the use of blind reviews/ratings would argue that these very strong expectations surrounding the Opus X distort the perception of the characteristics that are most important in cigar smoking (e.g., flavor, aroma, construction, and burn quality), and thus, a true quality score for this cigar can only be given if these expectations are removed. Furthermore, they would contend that in order for the Opus X to be fairly compared with the scores for cigars that produce fewer expectations (e.g., a new cigar on the market) it is necessary to “level the playing field” by eliminating any expectations. If it was found that the Opus X scored a lot higher than a new $5 cigar in a non-blind rating (e.g., Opus X=95, New cigar=89) than it did in a blind-rating (e.g., Opus X=90, New cigar=90), this outcome would provide further evidence that expectations influence cigar reviews/ratings and that they must be removed by presenting the cigars blind. So, are blind cigar reviews the best way to evaluate a cigar? From this little example, the logic for their use seems to be ironclad.

Despite the attractiveness and apparent success of blind cigar reviews and ratings, I believe that the logic for their use is inherently flawed. First let me say that I am not questioning the ability of blind reviewing to remove the effects of expectation from the cigar smoking experience—blind reviews definitely do this very well. The problem with blind reviews/ratings to me is that we should not be trying to remove expectations when evaluating a cigar in the first place.

The ‘Value’ of Blind Cigar Tasting
The purpose of a cigar rating is to give readers an indication of the relative level of enjoyment and satisfaction (as compared to other cigars that have been reviewed) they would get if there were to obtain the cigar and smoke it themselves. In other words, cigar reviews and ratings provide guidelines that are meant to help the reader select a cigar that will be smoked in the normal, non-blind way where the person is fully aware of which cigar they are smoking and has the expectations associated with this knowledge. Therefore, blind reviews/ratings attempt to predict the quality of the cigar smoking experience that will occur in an expectation-filled environment (normal smoking) through scores generated in an unnatural expectation-free environment. And, given the powerful interactions between expectations and flavor/aroma perception found in the research described above, these two environments will likely produce completely different sensory experiences. This to me is the fatal flaw with blind reviews.

To further illustrate this point let’s return the hypothetical rating scores for the Opus X and a new $5 cigar discussed above (i.e., non-blind: Opus X=95, New cigar=89/ blind: Opus X=90, New cigar=90). What implications do equal scores in blind ratings have for the reader that is looking for guidance in purchasing a cigar? If two cigars have equal blind ratings does that mean the reader should not bother wasting their money on the more expensive cigar (the Opus X in this example) because a cheaper cigar gives the same level of enjoyment? That would be a logical conclusion to draw from the blind ratings in the example above, given that both received exactly the same score. But the problem is that, although the blind ratings suggest that the two cigars will give an equal smoking experience, this does not tell us what will happen in a “real-world” environment, where the cigars are smoked in a normal, non-blind, expectation-filled setting. In fact, the non-blind rating scores in the hypothetical example suggest that if the reader were to purchase the two cigars and smoke them at home or their local B&M they would likely get much more enjoyment out of the Opus X (in large part due to the expectations associated with it) than they would get from the new $5 cigar. The conclusion drawn from the blind ratings (i.e., equal quality) is completely erroneous in this situation because expectations are a major component of normal cigar smoking. Whether we want to admit it or not, the expectation factors associated with an Opus X (e.g., rarity, price, knowledge of production methods, etc) make it a more enjoyable cigar for most cigar smokers. Expectations do not “contaminate” or “bias” the cigar smoking experience, on the contrary, they typically augment and enhance it. Thus, they should be taken into account when reviewing and rating a cigar.

So do blind reviews/ratings serve any purpose at all? To me their only real value is as a novelty game that allows a cigar smoker to test their ability to recognize different types of tobaccos (e.g., different countries, different seeds) and to see if they can identify a cigar they have smoked before from memory. Beyond that, I believe they are inferior to non-blind reviews/ratings. In fact, I would argue that reviewers should be given as much information about the cigar as possible. Because expectations are a major part of normal cigar smoking, they should be present at the time of reviewing. Doing blind cigar reviews and ratings is in some ways analogous to reviewing steak houses by having them send you unlabeled samples in Styrofoam containers. Although this would allow you to compare the flavors of the steak in an expectation-free environment it would be of little value in predicting which steak house you would enjoy the most because that depends on numerous other factors (price, ambience, presentation, etc). These critical expectations generate strong perceptions that will directly influence the flavor you get from the steak.

References:

Hoegg, J. & Alba, J. W. (2007). Taste perception: More than meets the tongue. Journal of Consumer Research, 33, 490-498.

Lee, L., S. Frederick, et al. (2006). Try it, you'll like it: The influence of expectation, consumption, and revelation on preferences for beer. Psychological Science, 17, 1054-1058.

Levin, I. P., & Gaeth, G. J. (1988). How consumers are affected by the framing of attribute information before and after consuming the product. Journal of Consumer Research, 15, 374-378.


Rob Gray is Stogie Fresh’s resident “Cigar Science Guy.” He is an educator, researcher and writer. Rob conducts research in Human Factors Psychology at Arizona State University.

Rob is a regular contributor to the Stogie Fresh Cigar Journal.

Well we just finished the final day of the RTDA show, and are we tired!  These shows are a lot of work.  You see, we are smoking 15 - 20 cigars a day, meeting with many manufacturers and sales people, plus we have to hoof it around 100,000 square feet of show space.  It’s tiring, but it’s all part of our job to bring you the most interesting products out there.

We have to say that we are very excited by many of the new products that we saw today.  We started off the day by visiting the Torano booth.  They had two very interesting new releases.  I’m sure many of you are familiar with the Casa Torano.  It’s been out for about a year, but only available in Connecticut wrapper.  This year they are releasing the Casa Torano Maduro.  This will raise the profile of this brand a bit as it will appeal to people who enjoy a Medium plus bodied cigar.  It has a dark and rich looking wrapper.  We are expecting this to sell quite well.  Their other new release is the Reserva Decadencia.  This is very interesting.  They start with a mild to medium bodied blend and slowly infuse fine port in with tobaccos.  This is not your common flavored cigar.  It has a subtle flavor of port and should appeal to all smokers.

From there we went to see a very interesting product called Colba.  Colba was the original name of Cuba when Christopher Columbus discovered the island.  He could not pronounce it, so he called it Cuba.  This fantastic cigar his hand made in Miami, by Santiago Cabana. Mr. Cabana has been in the business for over 6 decades. A native of Las Villas, Cuba, he arrived in the United States in 1993 and began manufacturing his cigars.  He is located in Little Havana and a friend of our close friend, Pepin Garica.  Colba cigars are medium to full bodied, and it is something we are very excited about!  Once you smoke them, we are sure you will feel the same way.

After a blistering pace the first day, we decided to take a bit more time and explore.  This also provided us a wonderful opportunity to sit down and talk with our manufacturers and friends in the industry.  

The common theme in many of our conversations was the federal tax issue.  We are not out of the woods quite yet boys and girls.  Both the House of Representatives and the Senate have each passed their own provisions in regards to this issue.  The House lesgislation passed narrowly with a 33% tax and a $1 cap per cigar on the wholesale price with no floor tax on cigars.  The SenateÕs legislation also passed and is more aggressive.  Theirs is a 44% excise tax capped at $3 per cigar at wholesale.  Additionally, your friendly local Cigar purveyor would be required to pay a floor tax on all products in house.  This is a crippling action to many retailers throughout the country.

Congress is now on their fall recess and will resume actions on September 1st.   At this point a Joint conference committee will convene, with members from both the House and Senate, to work out a compromised funding provision.  It is extremely important to continue to call both your Congressman and Senators to protest this harsh, and unusually strong tax measures.  The RTDA is currently hiring federal lobbyists to assist us with this, but we still need your support!

And now we move on to a lighter subject, the fins of the RTDA show.  One of the more interesting, boutique products that we found was a brand called Costa.  Costa is a small batch production cigar that is made in Panama.  This small factory has been producing the Costa brand for Europe for 5 years.  They introduced it to the American market at the show, and I have to tell you, I think this is a fabulous medium bodied cigar.  It features a rich blend of Panamanian and Honduran tobaccos topped of with a silky Connecticut wrapper.  It is really a special cigar that we are very excited to receive.


Next we stopped by the Ashton booth.  They introduced a few new humidors and accessories, but their big introduction is the new San Cristobal cigar.  This is a very interesting product made by Pepin Garcia in his Nicaraguan factory, Tabacalera Cubana.  It has a dark and oily wrapper.  This cigar is a solid medium body and has a rich and complex flavor with a hint of sweetness.  I think this is one of  the best products to come out of PepinÕs Nicaraguan factory.  Additionally, they will be limited production with no more than 300,000 cigars produced the first year.


Next we stopped by the Gran Habano booth to see our friends Guillermo and George Rico.  They have some new releases and line extensions that are sure to be big winners.  First they have a new product called La Gran Fuma.  This is a very reasonably priced product with an attractive band and packaging.  It is a Cuban sandwich style cigar with superior construction.  It is very smooth and is medium bodied.  Additionally, they have some new line extensions that should be well received.  In the 3 Siglos line they are introducing a new Corona size.  In the Gran Habano Blend, they are introducing several new items in the Corojo #5 blend.  First, the Imperiale (6x60) is now a regular item.  Also, they will have a special 100 count factory box of the Imperiale available this year.  Carrying on with the large ring gage theme, they are introducing a new size called the Triumph.  This is a big stick.  Measuring a stout 7x58, this cigar should be another smash hit. 


Once we left the Gran Habano booth, we headed over to see the boys at Cusano cigars.   They have some tremendous new products that we are very excited about.  We talked at length with Michael Chiusano, President of Cusano cigars regarding his new Cuvee Cigars.  Last year he released a limited edition Lancero called Cuvee Grand.  This cigar received tremendous acclaim and received high ratings in many publications.  This year he is extending the Cuvee line by adding 3 new wrappers and more traditional sizes for the American market.  They will be the Cuvee Blanc (Ecuadorian grown Connecticut shade wrapper, the Cuvee Rouge (Sungrown wrapper), and the Cuvee 151 (they call it the "overproof" wrapper, but it seems to me to be an oscuro wrapper).  These cigars are all excellent and I am confident that they will be a tremendous success.  Also, there is a new size in the Cusano 18 series, called the Toro Gordo.  It is a 6.25x54, which should be a solid seller in an already hot product line.

Next we stopped by the Perdomo booth to see what Nick had in store for us.  His new release this year is the Perdomo Habano.  It will be available in either Corojo or Maduro.  This will be a very competitively priced product that is medium to full bodied.  It has a gorgeous, classically styled band that is very attractive.  Perdomo is also bringing back the Petite Corona size throughout the Perdomo Reserve lines.  Other items of note are a few nice gift sets for the Holidays.  There will be a Perdomo ESV gift box and a Perdomo Reserve gift box.  

We stopped by to see our old friend Tony Borhani at Bahia Cigars.  Tony has always produced interesting Ultra premium boutique cigars, and this years release is quite interesting.  He was very secretive about his new blend called Icon.  It uses an Ecuadorian wrapper and a unique blend of Nicaraguan filler tobaccos.  It has a very mature flavor and is medium bodied.

Our final stop of the day was a quick jaunt through the Camacho booth.  They had the new 2007 Liberty on display, as well as the 10th Anniversary Camacho cigar.  They also had a very cool collection in the case called the Camacho Signature Blends collection.  This was a very cool gift pacakage and we feel it should be a huge success as a gift item.

Well that's all for now.  It's time for a quick nap before we head out to dinner with the folks from Ashton.  We'll keep you posted tomorrow.

Welcome one and all to our blogging of the 75th Annual RTDA Show.  For those of you who are not familiar, the RTDA is our industries biggest trade show where all of the manufacturer, cigar companies, and retailers/e-tailers meet under one roof.  This is usually the time of year when most companies will release their latest and greatest products.  From the buzz I have already heard, this year should prove to be one of the most interesting that we have seen so far.  We'll keep you posted via the blog with whats going on. So, we got in last night.  A nice quick flight from Phoenix.  Our hotel is right across the Street from the convention center, which should prove convenient after our evenings of debauchery.  You see, a lot of manufacturers have dinners and or parties, so they keep us pretty busy in the evenings. Last night we had a very interesting time.  We invited Pepin Garica and the El Rey de Los Habanos crew to dinner at Morton's the Steakhouse.  It was quite an interesting table.  Out of the eleven of us at the table,  four of spoke English, two were able to translate, and a few us spoke broken English or Spanish.  The rest spoke no English at all; only Spanish.  As I'm sure you can imagine it was quite an entertaining evening.  It was particularly interesting ordering dinner.  A lot of commotion, translating and all but we finally got it done. Thank goodness that Mike Villaplana wa there to translate the entree presentation.  If he hadn't been able to translate, I'm not sure what time in the evening we would have gotten dinner! It was a tremendous evening and Pepin promised us he had some very exciting things to show us at the show.  We stopped by his booth first thing in morning and we were not disappointed.  The first item he introduced us to was the Don Pepin Garcia Series JJ Maduro made in his Miami factory.  It is the same core medium to full bodied blend as the Natural JJ, but this time with a chocolate brown, dark and oily Corojo Maduro wrapper.  It was dynamite smoke.  This should prove to be another outstanding edition to the Don Pepin line.  The second smoke he showed us was the El Centurion. This smoke is hand made in his Nicaraguan factory, Tabacalera Cubana using Criollo '98 binder and Corojo '99 wrapper.  It is medium to full and bursting with flavor.  It is absolutely his best Nicaraguan effort to date.  We have high hope for this item as well. We love searching out the boutique manufacturers.  That's how we found Pepin in the first place.  We came across a very interesting cigar called Canimao. What really caught our eye was they had silky smooth, beautiful wrapper leaves.  The owner of the company, Mel Gonzales, is  very passionate man.  After speaking with him for a few minutes, we could tell that he has a deep love and understanding for tobacco.  He truly has a special product.  His cigars are beautifully constructed and his pride shows in his products.  They are all naked (no cellophane) to ensure the cigars to continue to age in the boxes.  They are a solid medium bodied smoke with excellent construction, an even burn, and a nice solid ash. Next we stopped by the booth of our old friend Phillip Wynn of Felipe Gregorio.  This man is fantastic at breaking the mold and creating truly unusual products.  We saw a new line extension of Pelo de Oro line calle the arrow.  It's exactly as it sounds.  The cigar starts off at a nice 46 or so ring gage.  it maintains this shape till about half way up and then it begins to taper to a point and topped off with a nice flag.  We also saw his latest addition to the Power line, this being called the Art of Power.  This product is really unique as it utilizes two wrapper leafs and the cigars are all unique shapes.  They are both excellent smokes. Later we stopped by the General Cigar Co. booth to see what they had in store for us this year.  They had a few new releases that should prove to be fairly interesting.  The first one is called Stradivarius. This is a super premium smoke with a super premium price.  Pricing for this beauty will be between $30 and $34.  It is expensive, but these cigars feature a 15 year old Connecticut shade wrapper and each cigar comes in its own cedar coffin.  Now we come back down to earth a bit with the new Hoyo de Tradicion. I'm very excited by this new offering.  General is using the traditional Cuban art work on this little dynamo.  Retail pricing should be about $5 a stick, slightly more palatable to the regular smoker.  It uses a Honduran Rosado wrapper leaf that is simply magnificent.  It is a medium bodied smoke with a tremendous amount of flavor.  Their other new release is the Don Tomas Sungrown. This one again is back down to earth (thankfully) priced at about $4-$5 a piece.  It is a Honduran puro that is a solid medium-to-full body with rich and satisfying flavors. Our last stop of the day was by the CAO booth.  These guys have to be the most creative marketers in the business.  This year they are creating some interesting line extensions as well as a new release the CAO American. The American is their last entry in the country series.  This distinct product should be priced along the same lines as their Brazilia and Italia cigars.  What makes this unique is the two wrappers they use on this cigar.  It uses a Connecticut grown Broadleaf maduro wrapper with a thin line of Connecticut grown Shade wrapper.  Another home run in my opinion from the CAO guys and gals.  They also have a special CAO Sopranos gift box and new Limited edition.  Additionally, they are releasing the CAO Maduro 10th anniversary.  Finally, they are releasing new aluminum tubes in the Gold, Brazilia and Italia lines.